trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -41.8% | -47.4% | 50% | 50% | -54.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +5.7% | -4.4% | 80% | 80% | -13.9% |
| all | 30 | +14.1% | +3.3% | 73% | 73% | -3.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.3% | 73% | -3.3% |
| 10% | -6.6% | 63% | -12.5% |
| 15% | -15.6% | 37% | -21.0% |
| 20% | -23.9% | 33% | -28.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? | Yes | 71¢ | 98¢ | $30 | $41 | +$11 (+38%) |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 92¢ | $30 | $37 | +$7 (+22%) |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | $30 | $34 | +$4 (+13%) |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 86¢ | $30 | $31 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 78¢ | 66¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-16%) |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 68¢ | 32¢ | $20 | $10 | −$10 (-52%) |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | Yes | 55¢ | 52¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 97¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 (+27%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $25 | +$4 | +15% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 30 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? | May 28 | $20 | +$4 | +18% |
| Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? | May 23 | $20 | +$11 | +54% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 18 | $10 | +$3 | +30% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | May 02 | $21 | +$7 | +35% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | May 02 | $20 | +$10 | +49% |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Apr 02 | $20 | +$6 | +28% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Mar 31 | $20 | +$6 | +28% |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $20 | +$2 | +11% |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $20 | +$7 | +33% |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $30 | +$10 | +33% |
| Hurricanes vs. Kraken | Mar 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? | Mar 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Timberwolves | Mar 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Red Wings vs. Panthers | Mar 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Lightning vs. Jets | Mar 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Mar 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 16 | $15 | +$4 | +28% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 09 | $10 | +$6 | +61% |
| Capitals vs. Bruins | Mar 08 | $10 | +$9 | +85% |
| Senators vs. Flames | Mar 06 | $5 | +$3 | +61% |
| Panthers vs. Blue Jackets | Mar 06 | $5 | +$5 | +92% |
| Sabres vs. Penguins | Mar 06 | $5 | +$5 | +96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | Mar 05 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Avalanche vs. Kings | Mar 03 | $10 | +$6 | +61% |
| Stars vs. Canucks | Mar 03 | $10 | +$6 | +56% |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | Feb 26 | $10 | +$25 | +252% |
| Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? | Jan 23 | $4 | +$1 | +30% |