Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x61e0…4b62
sports · 1009 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$23,080 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57,177 · open +$2,048
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$9,048
Realized−$57,177
Unrealized+$2,048
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses615 / 393
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4,039
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1008 / 1009
History coverage215d
Avg bet$1,108
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 1008 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$681
7 days−$21,038
14 days−$14,252
30 days−$11,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $7,000 $9,048 +$2,048 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 79¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 85¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks Knicks 69¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 43¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 82¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
ASB Classic: Emilio Nava vs Sebastian Baez Nava 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov Grigor Dimitrov 56¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hawks Knicks 51¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 62¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Kings 57¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Knicks 77¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $56,670 +$907 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,042 −$1,495 -73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $507 −$101 -20%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $200 +$8 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13,990 −$8,794 -63%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $301 +$32 +11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $201 +$40 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $603 −$600 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $6,337 −$6,083 -96%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $2,028 −$1,846 -91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,459 −$3,187 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$9 -36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,440 +$6,780 +197%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $110 +$7 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $201 +$19 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $405 +$251 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $70 +$17 +24%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 27 $40 +$5 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $510 +$1,112 +218%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $121 +$73 +60%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $70 −$62 -88%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $204 +$319 +157%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $487 +$513 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $303 +$158 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $406 +$378 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $348 −$344 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $458 +$742 +162%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov May 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco Gauff Apr 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 21 $100 −$99 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 21 $100 +$97 +97%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Apr 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 20 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Gwangju: Clement Chidekh vs Coleman Wong Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Apr 20 $1,000 −$375 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 20 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $40 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$52,931
crypto 1% −$2,075
other 0% +$23
finance 0% +$366
politics 0% −$107
tech 0% −$488
weather 0% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 96¢ $8,010 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $401 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $3,057 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $3,062 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $614 2h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 77¢ $7,048 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 16¢ $7,140 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $13,277 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 21¢ $2,347 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 26¢ $8,746 2h
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) SELL Knicks $546 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1,019 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $3,016 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $407 23h
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 30¢ $2,042 24h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 96¢ $200 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2,038 47h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $507 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $10,371 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $50 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $15,245 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,835 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 79¢ $50 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5,096 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 21¢ $5,196 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $8,110 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 83¢ $201 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 90¢ $301 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $102 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 81¢ $1,006 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -41.9% -47.5% 38% 25% -31.0%
≤30d 32 +9.7% -0.8% 62% 47% -20.0%
≤90d 463 -31.9% -38.4% 42% 33% -38.1%
all 1008 -1.5% -10.8% 61% 54% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 54% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 43% -22.5%
15% -27.2% 33% -30.0%
20% -34.3% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,048.40 · official $9,048.40 (match) · 3224 history records