Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61e7…6f9d world 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% $0
world 36% −$2
other 12% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 0% -10.0%
all 21 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage429d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $27 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $11 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $27 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $21 −$2 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $28 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 23 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 22 $110 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 22 $11 −$1 -6%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Apr 21 $121 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $29 22m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $27 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $27 14h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $3 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $10 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $11 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $4 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $28 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $29 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $22 26d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records