Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
61 0x61ec…4133 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$22 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$327
7 days+$539
14 days+$604
30 days+$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$384
other 46% +$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +95.5% +76.9% 75% 75% +93.1%
≤30d 36 +35.7% +22.8% 58% 58% +59.0%
≤90d 36 +35.7% +22.8% 58% 58% +59.0%
all 36 +35.7% +22.8% 58% 58% +59.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.8% 58% +59.0%
10% +11.0% 58% +43.8%
15% +0.3% 56% +29.9%
20% -9.5% 56% +17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$15 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage15d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND W Jun 28 $43 +$28 +65%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$16 +52%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 Jun 27 $50 +$293 +589%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Team to Take First Corner Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 +$19 +76%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Jun 25 $64 +$20 +32%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 24 $51 +$42 +83%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $31 +$85 +276%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$17 +109%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$37 +365%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $51 +$101 +197%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$16 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 20 $15 +$19 +124%
Gio Reyna: 2+ shots Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND W BUY 60¢ $43 17h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY 13¢ $15 20h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 36¢ $30 20h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 22h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 65¢ $30 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a d BUY $10 22h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 BUY 14¢ $50 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 52¢ $10 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Team to Take First Corner BUY Germany 62¢ $15 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will S BUY 30¢ $51 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $49 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $25 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will BUY 75¢ $64 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 22¢ $102 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 54¢ $51 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 54¢ $25 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $32 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $15 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 26¢ $31 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $30 7d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $30 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $15 8d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.46 · official $21.93 (match) · 67 history records