Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61ed…0f5d weather 496 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,957 (-2%) realized −$1,966 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate83%409W / 85L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$217
14 days−$265
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,884
crypto 9% +$7
tech 5% −$3
weather 3% +$7
politics 2% +$1
sports 2% −$232
culture 2% +$3
world 0% −$4
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -20.7% -28.2% 44% 41% -39.3%
≤30d 69 -23.1% -30.5% 54% 23% -30.9%
≤90d 196 -7.4% -16.2% 82% 9% -17.0%
all 494 -2.4% -11.7% 83% 4% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -11.4%
10% -20.2% 2% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 2% -27.6%
20% -35.0% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$32 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$1,966
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses409 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)494 / 496
History coverage186d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 65¢ $48 $59 +$11 (+23%)
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) FOKUS 65¢ 62¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$31 +65%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sontje Hansen: 1+ shots Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $29 −$25 -85%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$7 -67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $39 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$8 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 $0 +14%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $39 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump post "Stupid" this week on Truth Social? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $670 on April 27? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Noemi Basiletti vs Daria S Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $550? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
ITF Brasilia: Camila Romero vs Luiza Fullana Jun 06 $5 $0 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
ITF Osijek: Kali Supova vs Salma Drugdova Jun 05 $6 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $49 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $47 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $48 4h
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 65¢ $50 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $47 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 6h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $10 2d
Sontje Hansen: 1+ shots SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Sontje Hansen: 1+ shots BUY No 35¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 23¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 63¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $9 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $15 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 32¢ $4 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $16 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $10 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 56¢ $9 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 58¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $39 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 71¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 75¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 21¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 67¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.43 · official $106.88 (match) · 1168 history records