Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x61f2…e77a
other · 642 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$29 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$309 · open −$142
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,719
Realized+$309
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses358 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions278
Markets (closed)387 / 642
History coverage8d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day422.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 278 History 387 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$296
14 days+$309
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? No 85¢ 89¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 85¢ 81¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 77¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 95¢ 92¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No 86¢ 87¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 62¢ 50¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump resign before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Anthropic acquired before 2027? No 93¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in June? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 14 $34 +$12 +34%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 +$15 +41%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $116 +$5 +4%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 14 $87 +$3 +4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Jun 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $16 $0 +3%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 14 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$3 +9%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $17 +$4 +21%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $62 +$3 +4%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 14 $44 +$2 +4%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$9 +95%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 14 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +3%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 14 $9 $0 +6%
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% +$95
world 32% +$33
tech 10% +$38
politics 10% +$7
finance 8% +$16
sports 2% +$5
crypto 1% +$18
economics 1% +$4
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $6 5m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 6m
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $8 7m
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 73¢ $4 19m
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 36m
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 43m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 56¢ $6 53m
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 76¢ $8 58m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? BUY No 93¢ $9 59m
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $9 1h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 1h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $7 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? SELL No 97¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $6 1h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL No 74¢ $1 1h
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL No 74¢ $5 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $3 2h
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 +4.8% -5.2% 92% 14% -5.0%
≤30d 387 +5.5% -4.6% 93% 14% -4.8%
≤90d 387 +5.5% -4.6% 93% 14% -4.8%
all 387 +5.5% -4.6% 93% 14% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover422.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 14% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 10% -14.0%
15% -22.0% 7% -22.3%
20% -29.7% 5% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,718.68 · official $1,716.16 (match) · 3500 history records