Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61f6…e497 sports 316 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,599 (+2%) realized −$958 · open +$2,557
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%154W / 156L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day89.2pace
Fees−$942est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$7,887now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$6,379
other 10% +$3,051
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +189.9% +162.3% 44% 32% -24.5%
≤30d 33 +194.5% +166.5% 58% 48% -18.2%
≤90d 310 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 39% -2.1%
all 310 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 39% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 39% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 32% -11.4%
15% -7.4% 24% -20.0%
20% -16.5% 21% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$128 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$7,887
Realized−$958
Unrealized+$2,557
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses154 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$942
Open positions23
Markets (closed)310 / 316
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$285
Trades / day89.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 33¢ 100¢ $1,300 $3,939 +$2,639 (+203%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Over 100¢ $147 $1,939 +$1,792 (+1220%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 100¢ $600 $1,132 +$533 (+89%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $340 $359 +$19 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 28¢ 31¢ $167 $183 +$16 (+10%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Austria 96¢ 100¢ $115 $120 +$5 (+4%)
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Fennel 78¢ 78¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? No 32¢ 80¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+152%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ 46¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Bamin Real Potosí end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 56¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+143%)
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage ZETA DIVISION 40¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 52¢ 39¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Mets 47¢ 46¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Lotte Giants KT Wiz 53¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox 41¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 44¢ $2,343 $3 −$2,340 (-100%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club ABB end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 50¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+152%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers 51¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under $36 $2 −$35 (-96%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Under $41 $1 −$41 (-98%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under $33 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 28 $377 −$378 -100%
Will Chicago Stars FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 28 $2 −$13 -818%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 28 $2 −$2 -88%
World Championships: USA vs. Hungary Jun 28 $0 +$73 +43879%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 28 $430 +$19 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $589 +$20 +3%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $396 +$16 +4%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $742 +$162 +22%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $374 −$3 -1%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $868 −$168 -19%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $636 +$20 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 28 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $487 +$213 +44%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 28 $208 +$22 +11%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $856 +$218 +26%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,183 −$508 -43%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $19 +$10 +52%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $45 −$44 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $2 $0 -5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2 +$19 +874%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $27 +$15 +55%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 30 $5 +$5 +101%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Lea May 29 $7 +$1 +13%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Essex May 29 $66 +$84 +129%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $6 +$5 +79%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 29 $29 +$115 +388%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $37 +$13 +34%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 28 $31 +$26 +83%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $40 +$58 +146%
Panathinaikos vs. PAOK May 28 $30 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoff May 28 $175 +$225 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $296 +$862 +291%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $116 +$126 +108%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $2,237 +$2,763 +124%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $105 +$82 +78%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $60 +$787 +1321%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $57 +$33 +57%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $1,141 +$36 +3%
Will Racing Club vs. Club Independiente Petrolero end in a draw? May 28 $689 +$50 +7%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $534 +$77 +14%
ITF Karuizawa: Hiromasa Koyama vs Noritaka Koizumi May 28 $3 +$6 +180%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $83 +$27 +33%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $99 +$24 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 78¢ $4 4m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 78¢ $4 8m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 28¢ $1 17m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 28¢ $3 17m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 28¢ $3 17m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 28¢ $18 17m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under $1 17m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 94¢ $189 17m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under $2 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 97¢ $97 18m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under $2 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $22 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 97¢ $4 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 97¢ $175 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 97¢ $36 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $77 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 97¢ $42 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $39 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $139 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 97¢ $78 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 97¢ $39 18m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 24¢ $2 18m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $109 18m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $77 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $76 18m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $77 18m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $13 18m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 12¢ $2 18m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 16¢ $20 18m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 16¢ $13 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,887.07 · official $7,884.41 (match) · 3500 history records