Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
61 0x61f9…5628 crypto 57 markets active 2d ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$211 (+2%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate96%50W / 2L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$12
other 23% +$73
economics 6% +$1
sports 6% +$45
tech 5% $0
politics 1% +$79
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 +11.1% +0.5% 96% 6% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 6% -7.5%
10% -9.1% 6% -16.3%
15% -17.9% 6% -24.4%
20% -26.0% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×71.98 per $1 lost it wins $71.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses50 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage533d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $524 $524 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 13 $507 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 10 $511 +$2 +0%
Will MIRA-CJL win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber o Apr 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 11 $502 +$2 +0%
Will COM win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 12 $533 +$1 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in January? Feb 03 $147 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $537 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? Jan 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 14 $541 +$11 +2%
Will Democrats win fewer than 45 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of D Dec 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 15 $546 +$6 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Jonathan Barlow win the 2025 Detroit mayoral election? Nov 13 $4 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 13 $535 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 23 $540 −$1 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 10 $6 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 10 $520 +$6 +1%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31? Sep 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tether acquire Circle before September? Sep 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 15 $196 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 15 $333 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 16 $25 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 16 $466 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 13 $209 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 13 $296 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May? Jun 20 $121 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 20 $222 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 11 $357 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 in March? Apr 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 16 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? Mar 10 $54 $0 +1%
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Wei Mar 10 $91 +$9 +10%
Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration? Mar 10 $21 +$79 +376%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $395 −$2 -0%
Celtics vs. Thunder Jan 19 $50 +$41 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $524 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 37d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $507 37d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 50d
Will MIRA-CJL win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber o BUY No 100¢ $7 63d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $511 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 83d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $35 92d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $502 96d
Will COM win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? BUY No 100¢ $8 133d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $533 133d
Will BNB dip to $400 in January? BUY No 100¢ $147 147d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $130 147d
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 154d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $537 154d
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 184d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $8 184d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $541 184d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 99¢ $546 215d
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY No 100¢ $5 215d
Will Jonathan Barlow win the 2025 Detroit mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $4 236d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $535 236d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? SELL No 99¢ $539 236d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 99¢ $3 249d
Will Democrats win fewer than 45 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of D BUY No 100¢ $3 249d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $540 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.42 · official $546.42 (match) · 113 history records