Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61fc…0f09 other 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%18W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$43
politics 25% −$28
sports 25% −$10
crypto 6% −$8
culture 3% −$4
economics 3% −$2
finance 3% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 77 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 163 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 180 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses18 / 162
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)180 / 181
History coverage104d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 22 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $119 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $69 −$3 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $308 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $182 −$4 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $83 −$1 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 18 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $274 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 11 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $185 −$3 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 1h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 95¢ $61 2h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 96¢ $9 9h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 96¢ $23 9h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 96¢ $29 10h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $60 10h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $0 17h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $10 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 24h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 25h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 31h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $67 31h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 38h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $59 38h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $59 44h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $68 45h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $66 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $70 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $71 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $63 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $63 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $69 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $63 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.73 · official $62.73 (match) · 753 history records