Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61fc…9904 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$126 (-15%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$32
weather 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.0% -15.0% 62% 4% -6.3%
≤30d 26 -6.0% -15.0% 62% 4% -6.3%
≤90d 26 -6.0% -15.0% 62% 4% -6.3%
all 26 -6.0% -15.0% 62% 4% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -6.3%
10% -23.1% 4% -15.3%
15% -30.5% 0% -23.5%
20% -37.3% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.39 per $1 lost it wins $7.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $55 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $61 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $57 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $55 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 93¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records