Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61fd…83b5 other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$886 (-8%) realized −$1,203 · open +$317
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$222
14 days+$388
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$436
sports 13% +$989
world 12% −$26
finance 7% −$299
culture 4% −$348
politics 3% −$100
crypto 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.8% -27.4% 30% 30% -2.4%
≤30d 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% +0.3%
≤90d 36 -41.1% -46.7% 33% 28% -14.4%
all 54 -23.8% -31.1% 35% 30% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 30% -15.9%
10% -37.7% 20% -24.0%
15% -43.7% 13% -31.3%
20% -49.2% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$64 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$2,882
Realized−$1,203
Unrealized+$317
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage186d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $1,773 $1,730 −$43 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 12¢ 64¢ $150 $771 +$621 (+415%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 37¢ 22¢ $632 $372 −$261 (-41%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $177 +$388 +220%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $577 +$423 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $467 −$231 -49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 20 $748 −$279 -37%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $514 +$235 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $443 +$67 +15%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 14 $349 +$99 +28%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $197 +$162 +82%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Apr 30 $38 +$9 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $84 +$12 +15%
Space FDV above $60M one day after launch? Apr 29 $40 +$9 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $52 −$20 -38%
Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 28 $192 −$192 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Apr 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025? Apr 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Apr 28 $115 −$115 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m Apr 28 $113 −$113 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Apr 28 $49 −$46 -95%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Apr 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Apr 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $256 +$62 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 22 $116 +$6 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 17 $405 −$110 -27%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $51 −$22 -43%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $134 +$8 +6%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 06 $46 +$78 +169%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 06 $63 −$55 -87%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $175 −$165 -94%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 10 $97 +$20 +21%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 02 $91 −$46 -51%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 31 $193 −$101 -52%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $190 −$30 -16%
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? Jan 21 $161 +$51 +32%
Iran strike on US military by January 31? Jan 19 $150 +$22 +15%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 15 $56 −$2 -4%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $349 −$22 -6%
Will MrBeast's Celebrity Challenge video get between 76 and 79 million Jan 13 $47 −$7 -16%
Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 11 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $337 10m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $228 22m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $177 40m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $50 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $22 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $25 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $18 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $2 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $17 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $3 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 12¢ $134 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $19 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $8 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $183 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $79 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,499 2h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $577 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $72 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $72 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $72 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $74 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,881.91 · official $2,881.91 (match) · 293 history records