Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61fd…5b6e crypto 577 markets active 7h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32,551 (-22%) realized −$32,543 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%277W / 289L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day61.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,208
7 days−$9,010
14 days−$8,779
30 days−$3,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$23,054
other 0% −$371
sports 0% −$80
world 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -30.0% -36.7% 33% 32% -47.2%
≤30d 182 +6.4% -3.8% 42% 41% -17.8%
≤90d 566 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 48% -24.5%
all 566 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 48% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 48% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 45% -31.7%
15% -24.9% 41% -38.3%
20% -32.3% 35% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$260 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$32,543
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses277 / 289
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)566 / 577
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day61.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 20 $1,928 −$1,928 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 19 $113 +$171 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$96 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $241 −$231 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $219 +$142 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $229 −$225 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $1,433 +$1,567 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $2,129 −$2,055 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $185 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $1,011 −$779 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $1,188 −$1,155 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $594 −$75 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $591 −$574 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $529 −$529 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$156 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $299 +$252 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $212 +$1,033 +486%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $117 −$111 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $846 −$807 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $355 −$339 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $602 +$161 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $361 −$342 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$120 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $834 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $618 −$594 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $526 −$500 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $312 +$299 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $230 +$182 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $1,048 +$1,491 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $1,151 −$1,099 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $550 −$525 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$111 +107%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $284 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $113 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.82 · official $231.82 (match) · 3500 history records