Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6200…7d23 sports 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,230 (-4%) realized −$3,819 · open −$411
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%150W / 185L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$1,139est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$637
7 days−$4,596
14 days−$2,586
30 days−$4,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,396
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -13.7% -22.0% 46% 33% -19.8%
≤30d 326 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 35% -14.2%
≤90d 335 -16.4% -24.4% 45% 34% -14.3%
all 335 -16.4% -24.4% 45% 34% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 34% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 27% -22.5%
15% -38.2% 23% -30.0%
20% -44.3% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$147 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$2,586
Realized−$3,819
Unrealized−$411
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses150 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,139
Open positions5
Markets (closed)335 / 340
History coverage52d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage ROSE 33¢ 34¢ $959 $973 +$15 (+2%)
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Conner Huertas Del Pino 28¢ 44¢ $529 $819 +$290 (+55%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Alliance Guardians 37¢ 20¢ $935 $500 −$435 (-47%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C DFX Peek 98¢ 78¢ $198 $157 −$41 (-21%)
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Nicolas Kicker 29¢ 56¢ $70 $136 +$66 (+95%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Amaru Gaming 3¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $546 +$168 +31%
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna Jun 17 $32 +$13 +39%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $267 +$79 +29%
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning Jun 17 $118 −$116 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Julia Stamatova vs Dalila Spiteri Jun 17 $204 +$22 +11%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $467 −$440 -94%
ITF Mohammedia: Anna Shkutova vs Saumya Ronde Jun 17 $176 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $195 +$28 +14%
ITF Dinard: Mia Slama vs Juliette Trunet Jun 17 $155 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $46 +$52 +112%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $609 +$241 +40%
ITF Bolszewo: Ivana Sebestova vs Khrystyna Vozniak Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $609 +$63 +10%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 17 $111 +$16 +14%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $253 +$5 +2%
ITF Bolszewo: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Weronika Falkowska Jun 17 $234 +$17 +7%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 17 $326 +$24 +7%
ITF Haskovo: Valeria Garnevska vs Lia Karatancheva Jun 17 $361 +$35 +10%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $61 −$21 -34%
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Soha Sadiq Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $10 +$43 +442%
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani Jun 17 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1,471 +$44 +3%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $223 +$365 +164%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +101%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $110 +$53 +48%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $18 +$49 +275%
Counter-Strike: unknowns vs Arthrose Peek (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Jun 16 $12 −$11 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $1,164 −$218 -19%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $133 +$292 +220%
ITF Sapporo: Yuna Sugiyama vs Miyu Nishiwaki Jun 16 $1,402 +$240 +17%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $234 −$164 -70%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $68 −$66 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $29 −$28 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $182 +$68 +38%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 15 $268 +$49 +18%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2,542 −$937 -37%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $460 +$262 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $190 −$187 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 62¢ $88 31m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 29¢ $46 32m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 29¢ $25 32m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame SELL Amaru Gaming 3¢ $1 38m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 2¢ $2 41m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 2¢ $2 42m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $23 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $5 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $13 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $15 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $8 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $14 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $30 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 45¢ $5 48m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 31¢ $134 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 31¢ $101 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 22¢ $171 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 22¢ $113 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 3¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 3¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 5¢ $7 2h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 38¢ $5 3h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 39¢ $204 3h
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning BUY Loes Ebeling Koning 41¢ $118 4h
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna BUY Martina Colmegna 71¢ $32 4h
ITF Mohammedia: Anna Shkutova vs Saumya Ronde BUY Anna Shkutova 98¢ $122 5h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 37¢ $61 5h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 33¢ $68 5h
ITF Mohammedia: Anna Shkutova vs Saumya Ronde BUY Anna Shkutova 97¢ $54 5h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 37¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,585.97 · official $2,585.99 (match) · 2392 history records