trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -47.7% | -52.7% | 33% | 33% | -70.9% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -29.6% | -36.3% | 62% | 12% | -56.4% |
| all | 16 | -27.1% | -34.0% | 69% | 6% | -51.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.0% | 6% | -51.5% |
| 10% | -40.4% | 6% | -56.1% |
| 15% | -46.1% | 6% | -60.4% |
| 20% | -51.4% | 6% | -64.3% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $241 | −$237 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $161 | −$158 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 27 | $102 | +$58 | +57% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? | May 26 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Penguins vs. Flyers | Apr 22 | $158 | −$156 | -98% |
| Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 | Apr 22 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 22 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? | Apr 22 | $241 | +$10 | +4% |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | Mar 14 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? | Mar 14 | $22 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Feb 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? | Feb 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January? | Feb 02 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tesla reach $645 in January? | Feb 02 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? | Jan 06 | $24 | $0 | +0% |