Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
62 0x6202…a1fc crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$589 (-19%) realized −$568 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$469
other 18% −$84
politics 5% −$35
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -2.8% -12.1% 67% 58% -11.4%
≤30d 37 -9.6% -18.2% 62% 54% -22.3%
≤90d 37 -9.6% -18.2% 62% 54% -22.3%
all 94 -16.9% -24.8% 44% 40% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 40% -26.9%
10% -32.0% 35% -33.9%
15% -38.5% 26% -40.3%
20% -44.6% 17% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$568
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage264d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 90¢ 78¢ $160 $139 −$21 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $113 −$76 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $132 +$36 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$42 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$33 +33%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$4 +129%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +51%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +35%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$29 -70%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $71 −$53 -74%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$10 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $71 +$12 +17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$25 -25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$14 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 28 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $207 −$207 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 28 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Feb 28 $1 $0 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 27 $40 −$34 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 27 $20 −$18 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 27 $40 +$16 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 27 $20 +$14 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 27 $25 +$9 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 27 $20 +$12 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $161 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $33 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $44 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.67 · official $120.00 · 205 history records