Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
62 0x6205…577a crypto 1173 markets active 0h ago coverage 584d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ Covers last 584d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,179 (+21%) realized +$5,179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%382W / 791L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 584d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$18
sports 7% −$138
other 3% −$149
weather 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -0.6% -10.1% 21% 16% -3.9%
≤30d 69 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 17% -3.2%
≤90d 614 -36.3% -42.4% 33% 30% -21.1%
all 1173 -31.0% -37.6% 33% 28% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 28% -11.1%
10% -43.6% 23% -19.6%
15% -49.0% 17% -27.3%
20% -54.0% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses382 / 791
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1173 / 1173
History coverage584d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1173 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$11 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$8 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $16 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $13 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records