Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6206…531d other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$24
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$4
sports 22% +$34
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -28.4% -35.3% 39% 24% -7.9%
≤30d 48 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 23% -8.0%
≤90d 48 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 23% -8.0%
all 48 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 23% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 23% -8.0%
10% -43.9% 10% -16.8%
15% -49.3% 10% -24.9%
20% -54.3% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)48 / 58
History coverage8d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $111 +$8 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 $0 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$6 +3%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 −$4 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $191 +$2 +1%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +78%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 +$15 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $79 +$16 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $90 +$12 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 0m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 87¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $50 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $49 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $99 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $96 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.26 · official $15.26 (match) · 143 history records