Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x6206…cf4c
other · 85 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$250 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$223 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$575
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions48
Markets (closed)45 / 85
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 48 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$41
14 days+$223
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 0¢ 81¢ $0 $54 +$54 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $40 +$40 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 71¢ 100¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 97¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? No 81¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $21 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 78¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 0¢ 18¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 19¢ 38¢ $5 $9 +$5 (+97%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 33¢ 56¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$15 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $64 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $75 +$72 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $83 +$6 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$6 +31%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 07 $2 $0 -16%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $20 +$19 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $26 −$1 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $30 −$6 -21%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $10 +$8 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $20 +$5 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Marcus McGhee win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $21 −$8 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $68 −$17 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$2 -50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $174 +$169 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $24 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$8 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $16 +$4 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$54
crypto 19% +$168
sports 9% +$30
world 7% −$8
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 41m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $1 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $0 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $0 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $4 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 18¢ $3 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 16¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 17¢ $3 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 17¢ $3 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.1% -14.2% 42% 36% -1.8%
≤30d 45 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 40% +14.0%
≤90d 45 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 40% +14.0%
all 45 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 40% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 40% +14.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 31% +3.1%
15% -27.8% 22% -6.8%
20% -34.9% 20% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.25 · official $575.05 (match) · 597 history records