Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6207…f63a crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate70%75W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$3
other 31% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 50% -15.1%
≤30d 107 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 63% -12.3%
≤90d 107 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 63% -12.3%
all 107 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 63% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 63% -12.3%
10% -17.8% 47% -20.7%
15% -25.8% 35% -28.4%
20% -33.0% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses75 / 32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 27 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 211 history records