Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

62 0x6209…62ec other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$210 (-9%) realized −$297 · open +$87

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate63%12W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$111per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-15.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-6.8%	-15.7%	63%	58%	-19.4%
≤30d	19	-6.8%	-15.7%	63%	58%	-19.4%
≤90d	19	-6.8%	-15.7%	63%	58%	-19.4%
all	19	-6.8%	-15.7%	63%	58%	-19.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.7%	58%	-19.4%
10%	-23.7%	32%	-27.1%
15%	-31.1%	26%	-34.1%
20%	-37.9%	11%	-40.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -8% → late -6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$92 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$242

Realized−$297

Unrealized+$87

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses12 / 7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage6d

Avg bet$111

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	55¢	100¢	$100	$182	+$82 (+82%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	22¢	$50	$54	+$4 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	15¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$305	−$287	-94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$58	+$42	+73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$58	−$49	-85%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$33	+32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$303	+$34	+11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$101	+$20	+20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$101	+$50	+50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$201	+$31	+15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$100	+$19	+18%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$101	−$59	-58%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$8	+8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$48	+48%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Jun 22	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$101	+$65	+65%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$172	−$27	-16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$23	+$3	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$46	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	−$76	-75%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	55¢	$51	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	55¢	$51	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	3¢	$18	25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$305	28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	9¢	$9	47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$58	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$58	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	59¢	$220	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	78¢	$101	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	76¢	$120	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	40¢	$50	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	28¢	$42	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$100	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$149	4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	30¢	$103	4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	5d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	10¢	$145	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.76 · official $241.76 (match) · 50 history records