Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x620a…cacf sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$95 (+39%) realized +$106 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$104
sports 24% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.9% +35.7% 50% 50% +102.3%
≤30d 2 +49.9% +35.7% 50% 50% +102.3%
≤90d 2 +49.9% +35.7% 50% 50% +102.3%
all 2 +49.9% +35.7% 50% 50% +102.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.7% 50% +102.3%
10% +22.7% 50% +82.9%
15% +10.8% 50% +65.2%
20% -0.0% 50% +49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +124% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +124% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$15 · ×7.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.13 per $1 lost it wins $7.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $126 $122 −$5 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 54¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 38¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $58 +$108 +187%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$15 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $128 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $58 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.89 · official $155.53 (match) · 7 history records