Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x620a…2200 other 7 markets active 15h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$250 (-41%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$222
sports 7% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 29% 29% -47.6%
≤30d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 29% 29% -47.6%
≤90d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 29% 29% -47.6%
all 7 -39.7% -45.4% 29% 29% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 29% -47.6%
10% -50.6% 29% -52.6%
15% -55.4% 29% -57.2%
20% -59.8% 29% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$70 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 +$33 +59%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$10 -51%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $95 +$62 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $56 17h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $23 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $296 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $103 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $104 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records