trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | Dalian Yingbo FC | 92¢ | 100¢ | $13 | $14 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+11%) |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 | Over | 93¢ | 92¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 0 Real Oviedo? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 02 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | May 23 | $13 | +$1 | +9% |
| Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 0 Real Oviedo? | May 14 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Spread: CD Leganés (-1.5) | Mar 30 | $16 | +$1 | +8% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | Mar 30 | $19 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on March 28? | Mar 30 | $121 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | Mar 28 | $1,544 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial | Mar 28 | $199 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Mar 28 | $1,451 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? | Mar 28 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on | Mar 28 | $1,472 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $23 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? | Mar 28 | $1,598 | $0 | +0% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Mar 28 | $1,828 | −$9 | -0% |
| Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $1,585 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +9.9% | -0.6% | 100% | 50% | -0.7% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 40% | 7% | -9.7% |
| all | 15 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 40% | 7% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.7% | 7% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 0% | -33.4% |