Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x620d…a2f2 sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$409 (-16%) realized −$406 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate70%90W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$213
14 days+$213
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$171
other 25% −$463
crypto 18% −$75
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +19.5% +8.1% 77% 77% +4.1%
≤30d 81 +19.5% +8.1% 77% 77% +4.1%
≤90d 81 +19.5% +8.1% 77% 77% +4.1%
all 129 +4.2% -5.7% 70% 62% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 62% -23.1%
10% -14.7% 51% -30.5%
15% -23.0% 35% -37.2%
20% -30.5% 19% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$406
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses90 / 39
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)129 / 133
History coverage134d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 71¢ 69¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 66¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$11 +112%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$17 +57%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 +$19 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$14 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$8 +41%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$5 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $35 +$9 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $33 +$13 +40%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $16 +$7 +41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $16 +$5 +30%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 19 $15 +$4 +26%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 +$13 +33%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$7 +35%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$16 +157%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$6 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $40 +$12 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$7 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $40 +$18 +43%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$8 +37%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 +$6 +39%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 +$8 +52%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $24 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $48 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $69 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $20 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $10 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $10 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $30 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $50 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $20 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $30 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $35 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $30 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $46 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $23 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $21 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $16 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $16 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $33 9h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $54 10h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $5 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $5 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $27 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $26 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.15 · official $162.15 (match) · 274 history records