Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
62 0x620e…b262 politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 667d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$87 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$6
world 6% +$3
sports 5% +$1
crypto 3% −$75
other 1% +$11
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 15 +15.4% +4.4% 67% 33% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 33% -9.4%
10% -5.6% 13% -18.1%
15% -14.7% 13% -26.0%
20% -23.1% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

667d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage667d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? No 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,752 −$6 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $2,225 −$2 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Feb 14 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Feb 14 $4 +$8 +203%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4? Oct 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Jun 30 $19 +$2 +10%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Feb 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Feb 20 $300 −$1 -0%
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 10 $200 −$1 -0%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Dec 06 $5 $0 +2%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Dec 06 $12 +$1 +5%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Aug 25 $43 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $1,746 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $1,752 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $2,223 122d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,225 124d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $12 252d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 252d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 252d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 252d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 353d
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4? BUY No 84¢ $5 353d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? BUY No 67¢ $7 353d
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 482d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $100 544d
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL No 100¢ $199 554d
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 100¢ $200 558d
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? BUY No 98¢ $5 661d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 661d
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 661d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? SELL Yes 74¢ $44 661d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? SELL No 93¢ $198 661d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 667d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? BUY No 94¢ $200 667d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.83 · official $153.83 (match) · 35 history records