Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6210…4fb1 sports 673 markets active 9h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,571 (-8%) realized −$1,564 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%307W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$358
14 days−$492
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$103
world 12% −$1,583
crypto 9% −$466
other 9% +$274
politics 4% −$38
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -11.6% -20.0% 31% 31% -14.6%
≤30d 296 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 42% -6.0%
≤90d 592 -1.6% -10.9% 50% 45% -14.2%
all 663 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 42% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -17.0%
10% -23.5% 35% -24.9%
15% -30.9% 31% -32.2%
20% -37.6% 27% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$1,564
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses307 / 356
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions10
Markets (closed)663 / 673
History coverage143d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 77¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 215 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 +$4 +216%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$28 -55%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$43 -84%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$24 +122%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 −$37 -72%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $50 +$22 +45%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $51 −$31 -62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 −$3 -48%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $50 −$24 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $50 −$28 -56%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$45 -89%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$28 -56%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $50 −$33 -64%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$36 -71%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 −$42 -83%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$91 +180%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $51 −$30 -60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$28 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $50 −$34 -69%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$29 -57%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$48 -94%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $51 −$2 -5%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$37 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$28 -56%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 +$3 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $51 −$28 -56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 −$28 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $51 −$2 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $50 −$27 -54%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $51 +$68 +134%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $50 +$40 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $50 +$42 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$27 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$39 -76%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 +$71 +140%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$27 -54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $51 −$32 -64%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $51 −$27 -54%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $51 −$29 -57%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $51 −$34 -66%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $51 −$28 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 31¢ $2 8h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) SELL Team Vitality 2¢ $0 19h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 17¢ $23 41h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 11¢ $5 47h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $0 47h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $0 47h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $0 47h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $0 47h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 9¢ $0 47h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 1¢ $0 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 6¢ $15 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $51 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 15¢ $2 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 14¢ $4 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 24¢ $12 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $3 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 45¢ $19 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 29¢ $18 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 30¢ $7 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $6 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 14¢ $22 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 7¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 6¢ $2 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $0 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 9¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.01 · official $94.92 · 1566 history records