Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x6214…20d1 world 22 markets active 5h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$493 (+13%) realized +$419 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$974now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$208
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$378
politics 20% +$53
other 18% +$71
tech 5% +$38
finance 5% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.8% -31.0% 43% 29% +3.5%
≤30d 7 -23.8% -31.0% 43% 29% +3.5%
≤90d 11 -14.9% -23.0% 45% 36% +7.5%
all 16 -8.1% -16.8% 56% 38% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 38% +4.7%
10% -24.8% 25% -5.3%
15% -32.1% 19% -14.5%
20% -38.7% 6% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$56 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$974
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage160d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 75¢ 89¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 44¢ 64¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+45%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 71¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$73 -72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 19 $101 −$35 -35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $950 +$407 +43%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $288 +$133 +46%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $300 +$229 +76%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Mar 23 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 23 $198 −$40 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $91 +$3 +4%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $72 +$19 +26%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $65 +$6 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $159 −$43 -27%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $50 +$11 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $60 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 15h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 44¢ $66 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $50 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $100 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 43¢ $55 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $101 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $302 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 65¢ $101 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $950 39d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 70¢ $225 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $62 88d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? BUY No $94 137d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? BUY Down 96¢ $91 137d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 137d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 79¢ $72 143d
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $65 146d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $61 152d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 156d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $974.28 · official $974.30 (match) · 49 history records