Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6216…cbe0 other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$20
14 days−$34
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$31
politics 25% −$18
sports 14% −$11
crypto 9% −$8
world 5% −$1
tech 5% −$10
culture 5% −$19
economics 4% −$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.9% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 77 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 156 -0.6% -10.0% 7% 0% -10.0%
all 168 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 155
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage100d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $127 −$5 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $123 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $202 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $118 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $67 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $127 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $488 −$1 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $127 −$2 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $273 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $177 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $166 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $218 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $60 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $53 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $50 2h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $50 7h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $58 7h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $58 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $46 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $46 20h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 20h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $59 25h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 26h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 34h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $52 35h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $52 41h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 41h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $19 46h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $56 47h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $11 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $61 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $61 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.75 · official $45.75 (match) · 690 history records