Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6217…79e3 other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 50L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$5
other 22% −$1
politics 13% +$7
tech 7% $0
finance 4% +$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 -6.8% -15.6% 24% 0% -9.8%
all 81 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage449d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $71 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $44 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $38 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $36 −$2 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $79 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $41 −$2 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -13%
Will X buy TikTok? Dec 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $6 $0 -1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $6 +$8 +132%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea May 31 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $9 $0 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 38m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 37h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $36 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $41 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $37 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $37 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $38 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $19 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $19 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 244 history records