Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6219…72da sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+1%) realized +$66 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%67W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$133
14 days+$87
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$33
other 10% +$5
politics 4% −$45
world 2% −$14
crypto 1% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -8.3% -17.0% 41% 41% +6.2%
≤30d 65 -27.9% -34.8% 31% 31% -3.3%
≤90d 202 -9.8% -18.4% 33% 33% -9.5%
all 202 -9.8% -18.4% 33% 33% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 33% -9.5%
10% -26.2% 32% -18.1%
15% -33.3% 31% -26.1%
20% -39.9% 31% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$16 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses67 / 135
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions4
Markets (closed)202 / 208
History coverage45d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 45¢ 44¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 +$28 +70%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $25 +$33 +129%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $13 +$37 +291%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $30 +$21 +70%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $16 +$20 +119%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$17 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $71 +$53 +75%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 +$14 +70%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 +$48 +119%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $46 −$45 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $32 +$26 +79%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$7 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $23 +$23 +99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$31 +307%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $13 +$16 +124%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $16 +$16 +97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $46 +$33 +73%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$23 +74%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $23 −$2 -8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $34 +$20 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$14 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $27 −$26 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 +$21 +107%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $5 2m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $23 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $15 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 25h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $13 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 46h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 46h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 46h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $16 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 26¢ $7 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Son Heungmi BUY 30¢ $15 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 56¢ $32 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 57¢ $39 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $13 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $13 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $20 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.26 · official $103.26 (match) · 374 history records