Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6219…cff6 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$281 (-15%) realized −$243 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%12W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days−$243
14 days−$268
30 days−$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$306
sports 9% −$65
crypto 8% +$12
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +84.8% +67.2% 27% 18% -32.7%
≤30d 40 -5.0% -14.1% 12% 10% -36.1%
≤90d 81 +6.5% -3.6% 15% 14% -34.6%
all 81 +6.5% -3.6% 15% 14% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 14% -34.6%
10% -12.9% 12% -40.9%
15% -21.3% 12% -46.6%
20% -29.0% 11% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses12 / 69
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)81 / 88
History coverage66d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $187 $174 −$13 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $109 $106 −$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $86 $91 +$5 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $97 $90 −$7 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $87 $78 −$9 (-10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $87 $78 −$9 (-10%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 69¢ 48¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $156 +$13 +8%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $49 −$15 -29%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 19 $42 −$5 -11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $126 −$21 -17%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $311 −$110 -35%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $36 −$3 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $89 −$86 -98%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $32 +$5 +16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$50 +1215%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Iceland? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Iceland? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Iceland? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 06 $1 +$8 +786%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $3 +$18 +596%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 +$8 +786%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 2 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 2 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 0 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 0 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 1 Manchester City FC? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Burnley FC? May 18 $1 +$9 +874%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 1 Burnley FC? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Burnley FC? May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Burnley FC? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 36m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 38m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 38m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 39m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $27 40m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $63 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $62 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $35 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $109 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $67 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 12h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $202 12h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 32h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 32h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 32h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 32h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $58 32h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 32h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 38h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 38h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $34 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $624.71 · official $624.71 (match) · 191 history records