Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

62 0x6219…aa6f sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$10,520 (+5%) realized +$12,845 · open −$2,325

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$9,249per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Fees−$817est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$10,675now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)-14.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-6.0%	-14.9%	53%	37%	-4.8%
≤30d	19	-6.0%	-14.9%	53%	37%	-4.8%
≤90d	19	-6.0%	-14.9%	53%	37%	-4.8%
all	19	-6.0%	-14.9%	53%	37%	-4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-14.9%	37%	-4.8%
10%	-23.1%	32%	-13.9%
15% ← realistic here	-30.5%	5%	-22.2%
20%	-37.3%	0%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

30% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$15,099) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -20% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,990 vs −$1,160 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$10,675

Realized+$12,845

Unrealized−$2,325

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$817

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage3d

Avg bet$9,249

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	Over	80¢	60¢	$10,000	$7,562	−$2,438 (-24%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$3,000	$3,112	+$112 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$8,043	−$4,595	-57%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$5,042	−$73	-1%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$15,099	+$4,112	+27%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$6,022	+$790	+13%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	Jun 25	$17,118	+$5,536	+32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	Jun 25	$8,044	−$350	-4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$10,066	+$2,431	+24%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	Jun 25	$18,375	+$1,731	+9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$24,822	−$1,347	-5%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$9,138	+$2,551	+28%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$2,012	+$614	+30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$3,026	+$1,195	+40%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 24	$1,251	−$1,069	-85%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$1,525	−$294	-19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$41,223	+$763	+2%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$3,015	−$2,002	-66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$3,013	−$27	-1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$3,478	+$177	+5%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$811	−$683	-84%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	36¢	$1,736	2m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	36¢	$1,712	2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	47¢	$3,048	9m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	82¢	$8,043	1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	80¢	$1,006	1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	80¢	$9,054	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$2,400	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	91¢	$727	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	72¢	$762	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	43¢	$602	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$19,211	2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	39¢	$479	3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$6,811	3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	88¢	$6,022	3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	72¢	$5,042	4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$15,099	4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	94¢	$4,594	5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	64¢	$3,100	6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	82¢	$3,016	13h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	75¢	$1,914	13h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	75¢	$15,204	13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	82¢	$5,028	13h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	95¢	$5,959	24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	91¢	$8,348	25h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	91¢	$10,027	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11,352	26h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	78¢	$10,066	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	88¢	$10,036	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	85¢	$2,813	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	47¢	$509	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,674.56 · official $10,674.56 (match) · 100 history records