Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6220…36f4 other 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$385 (-6%) realized −$383 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$19
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$12
other 16% −$129
weather 15% −$196
sports 4% −$58
world 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.2% -2.1% 62% 56% -1.2%
≤30d 28 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 39% -9.4%
≤90d 67 -17.6% -25.5% 42% 31% -15.4%
all 67 -17.6% -25.5% 42% 31% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 31% -15.4%
10% -32.6% 30% -23.5%
15% -39.1% 27% -30.9%
20% -45.1% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)67 / 76
History coverage64d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $50 −$17 -34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$18 +36%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$19 +93%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$25 +62%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$11 +216%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $179 +$81 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$3 -47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 03 $4,118 −$12 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $127 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $291 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 6? May 06 $32 −$14 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 5? May 05 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $2 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC? May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $150 −$148 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $54 −$45 -84%
Chelsea FC leading at halftime? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 04 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? May 04 $133 −$52 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 4? May 04 $139 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $27 −$27 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 38¢ $33 11m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 55¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $25 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will Norw BUY 16¢ $26 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 10h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $20 10h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $20 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Fra BUY $26 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 74¢ $40 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 30h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 31h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $5 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 86¢ $23 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $1 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $9 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $1 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $2 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $7 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $10 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $25 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.67 · official $97.67 (match) · 273 history records