Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
62 0x6224…4ed0 sports 40 markets active 14h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$132 (-3%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%29W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$257
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$7
other 18% −$97
crypto 17% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.2% -36.8% 47% 27% -19.2%
≤30d 25 -13.1% -21.4% 68% 36% -15.4%
≤90d 39 +5.8% -4.3% 74% 38% -10.6%
all 39 +5.8% -4.3% 74% 38% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 38% -10.6%
10% -13.4% 26% -19.2%
15% -21.8% 18% -27.0%
20% -29.5% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$63 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses29 / 10
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage76d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $206 +$2 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $126 +$81 +64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $145 −$108 -74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$72 -72%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $256 −$181 -71%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $170 +$36 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $196 +$140 +71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $304 +$76 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 −$30 -72%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $501 +$25 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $44 −$23 -53%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 +$4 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $34 +$6 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $446 +$5 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $422 +$17 +4%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +18%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $23 +$26 +113%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 04 $10 +$12 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 27 $594 +$6 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 27 $27 +$67 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 14 $120 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $613 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 07 $25 +$25 +100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 06 $62 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $165 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $41 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $126 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $37 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $70 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $75 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $13 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $58 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $11 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $146 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $99 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $206 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $170 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $100 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $100 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records