Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x6228…8550 other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$21 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%122W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$102
30 days−$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$99
finance 30% +$674
sports 11% −$99
crypto 9% −$375
world 3% −$76
economics 2% −$37
politics 2% +$18
culture 2% −$83
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.5% -34.4% 0% 0% -29.5%
≤30d 11 -29.4% -36.2% 18% 0% -43.6%
≤90d 35 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 43% +9.2%
all 234 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 45% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 45% -7.8%
10% -25.6% 35% -16.6%
15% -32.7% 29% -24.7%
20% -39.3% 21% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses122 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage171d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $20 −$13 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $32 −$13 -41%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $74 −$10 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $110 −$9 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $132 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $72 +$7 +9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $26 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $498 −$364 -73%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 01 $38 −$14 -37%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $45 −$2 -5%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 31 $168 −$49 -29%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 26 $57 +$17 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 23 $196 +$84 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $101 +$7 +7%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $129 −$48 -37%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $44 +$465 +1062%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $30 +$22 +73%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 15 $260 +$8 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $154 +$143 +93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 27 $177 +$78 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 24 $84 +$28 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 19 $358 +$8 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 16 $293 +$4 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $10 +$4 +39%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $14 +$2 +11%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $38 +$21 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $45 +$171 +376%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $106 +$92 +87%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 30 $10 −$2 -16%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 27 $5 +$6 +112%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $5 $0 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $18 +$10 +56%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $5 +$8 +156%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 19 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $70 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $81 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 23d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $15 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $11 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $11 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $36 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 24d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 46¢ $24 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 24d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $43 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $31 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.55 · official $19.55 (match) · 774 history records