Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x622a…96b5 crypto 1826 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$105 (-1%) realized −$68 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate72%1336W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$227
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$30
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 -8.4% -17.1% 73% 65% -6.8%
≤30d 1572 -5.4% -14.4% 75% 68% -11.2%
≤90d 1845 -4.8% -13.9% 72% 65% -10.9%
all 1845 -4.8% -13.9% 72% 65% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 65% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 44% -19.4%
15% -29.6% 12% -27.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1336 / 509
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1845 / 1826
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1845 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 76¢ 50¢ $57 $37 −$20 (-35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 72¢ 50¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 73¢ 50¢ $14 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 81¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 71¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 89¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 79¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 72¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 72¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 409 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.17 · official $76.17 (match) · 3500 history records