Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x622a…2b59 sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$534 (+3%) realized +$2,348 · open −$1,814
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 194d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,737
other 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -84.8% -86.3% 11% 0% -93.4%
≤30d 9 -84.8% -86.3% 11% 0% -93.4%
≤90d 9 -84.8% -86.3% 11% 0% -93.4%
all 69 +3.9% -6.0% 23% 17% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 17% -25.3%
10% -15.0% 13% -32.4%
15% -23.2% 12% -38.9%
20% -30.8% 9% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +37% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$109 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$941
Realized+$2,348
Unrealized−$1,814
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions11
Markets (closed)69 / 80
History coverage194d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ 8¢ $918 $869 −$49 (-5%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 2¢ 0¢ $1,524 $48 −$1,476 (-97%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 1¢ 0¢ $200 $10 −$190 (-95%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 1¢ 0¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+221%)
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $130 −$90 -69%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $2,246 −$220 -10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $1,682 −$1,667 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $487 −$200 -41%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $403 −$400 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $170 +$10 +6%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $123 +$993 +810%
Valorant: Sentinels vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff P Feb 07 $160 +$284 +177%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $507 −$507 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Feb 06 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $867 +$51 +6%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Feb 06 $110 −$102 -92%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 06 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 06 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $1,196 −$22 -2%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Grou Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group S Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $89 +$572 +643%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Gro Feb 05 $78 −$78 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $100 −$93 -93%
Dota 2: Heroic vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $767 +$44 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 23 $242 +$40 +17%
Bills vs. Browns Dec 21 $165 +$5 +3%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 20 $463 −$6 -1%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $85 +$10 +12%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Dec 19 $190 +$17 +9%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-21? Dec 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO1) Dec 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Dec 18 $36 +$7 +19%
Wizards vs. Spurs Dec 18 $33 −$30 -91%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) Dec 18 $1,240 +$557 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 18 $444 +$206 +46%
Clippers vs. Thunder Dec 18 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Dec 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO3) Dec 17 $369 −$164 -44%
LoL: ZSM vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) Dec 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Dec 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $1 0m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $17 0m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 0m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $9 0m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $4 1m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 1m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $4 1m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $7 1m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 2m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 2m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 2m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $2 2m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $5 2m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 3m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 4m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $2 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $5 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $2 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $0 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $10 7m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $11 7m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $5 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 8m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $1 8m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $13 8m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 9m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $0 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $941.49 · official $941.50 (match) · 1095 history records