Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x622b…d7ec other 214 markets active 14h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$457 (+7%) realized +$661 · open −$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 110L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$167
14 days−$842
30 days−$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$334
sports 25% +$725
culture 10% −$13
crypto 5% −$69
politics 1% −$12
world 1% −$18
economics 0% +$5
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.6% +14.5% 75% 75% +18.1%
≤30d 76 -82.5% -84.2% 9% 9% -49.1%
≤90d 178 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 35% -2.2%
all 195 -3.9% -13.1% 44% 38% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 38% +0.2%
10% -21.4% 35% -9.4%
15% -29.0% 30% -18.2%
20% -36.0% 25% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,532
Realized+$661
Unrealized−$204
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 110
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions19
Markets (closed)195 / 214
History coverage97d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $254 $317 +$63 (+25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $371 $233 −$138 (-37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $162 $231 +$70 (+43%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $247 $223 −$24 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $169 $84 −$84 (-50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $111 $76 −$35 (-32%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $81 $40 −$40 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $39 −$13 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-15%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $105 −$18 -17%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $283 +$122 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $149 +$59 +40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $45 +$22 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during Kentucky visit? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Yemen" or "Houthi" during Kentucky visit? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-03-22? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-03-11? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Bad Guys 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 26? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-11? Jun 08 $33 +$9 +28%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Barcelona SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
CA Independiente vs. Racing Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $5 −$2 -35%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during Kentucky visit? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-29? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Barcelona SC end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-30? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-03-25? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-03-12? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 12? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-03-11? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Kentucky visit? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 39h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $87 39h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $90 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $28 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 32¢ $58 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,532.15 · official $1,532.15 (match) · 1226 history records