Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x622c…0a6c world 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate30%28W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$4
world 33% −$12
politics 9% +$4
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.3% -6.5% 17% 17% -10.1%
≤30d 31 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 39 -0.7% -10.2% 28% 8% -9.6%
all 92 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage322d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $105 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $87 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $86 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $120 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $199 +$5 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $157 −$3 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $130 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $92 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $185 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $246 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $163 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $7 −$1 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $85 −$7 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 $0 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $23 −$6 -26%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $85 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $170 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $92 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $99 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $14 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $402 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $18 +$4 +23%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $134 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,938 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $640 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $16 $0 +2%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Nov 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 13 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $83 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $84 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $83 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $83 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $86 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $86 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $12 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $27 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $42 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $17 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $63 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $51 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.70 · official $32.70 (match) · 337 history records