Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x622d…ee74 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$66 (+14%) realized +$73 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$54
other 18% −$7
crypto 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.0% +9.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤30d 6 +21.0% +9.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤90d 6 +21.0% +9.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
all 7 +23.5% +11.8% 57% 57% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 57% +4.6%
10% +1.1% 57% -5.4%
15% -8.7% 57% -14.6%
20% -17.6% 43% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$28 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage177d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 54¢ $88 $81 −$7 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $51 +$71 +140%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $30 +$35 +114%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 −$36 -71%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 +$33 +65%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $183 −$38 -21%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 02 $20 +$8 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $89 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $15 18h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 25h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 26h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 26h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 36h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $40 36h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $143 39h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.17 · official $81.17 (match) · 15 history records