Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x622d…6d82 sports 108 markets active 1d ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$162 (+13%) realized +$163 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%75W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$490
sports 21% +$163
politics 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.5% +27.1% 75% 75% +24.9%
≤30d 11 +19.5% +8.1% 82% 73% +6.1%
≤90d 78 -1.6% -11.0% 74% 53% -11.7%
all 105 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 44% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 44% -46.7%
10% -24.4% 31% -51.8%
15% -31.7% 21% -56.5%
20% -38.4% 12% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses75 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage217d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes 81¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 11 $1 +$2 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $1 +$1 +47%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
ITF Grado: Gilberto Ravasio vs Gabriele Maria Noce May 31 $1 $0 +26%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 27 $1 +$1 +44%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka May 27 $2 $0 +16%
BC Zenit vs. Uralmash May 27 $2 $0 +17%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Unics Kazan vs. MBA Moscow Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Apr 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Apr 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Islamabad United Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat? Apr 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? Apr 28 $1 $0 -6%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 28 $1 $0 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 28 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Apex Mission Impossible (BO3) - North American C Apr 28 $1 $0 +16%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 28 $1 +$1 +83%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 28 $2 $0 +24%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets Apr 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw? Apr 24 $1 $0 +26%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 24 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 24 $1 $0 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 24 $1 $0 +31%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $1 $0 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 24 $2 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 23 $1 $0 +29%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 23 $1 $0 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 23 $1 $0 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 23 $1 +$1 +40%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 23 $2 $0 +4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 18 $1 $0 +11%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 18 $1 $0 +48%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 18 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Apr 18 $1 $0 +27%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Blues (-1.5) Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $1 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $1 7d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Henrique Rocha 39¢ $1 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 14d
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 17d
ITF Grado: Gilberto Ravasio vs Gabriele Maria Noce BUY Gabriele Maria Noce 79¢ $1 20d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $1 50d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $2 50d
BC Zenit vs. Uralmash BUY BC Zenit 85¢ $2 50d
Unics Kazan vs. MBA Moscow BUY MBA Moscow $1 50d
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards BUY Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 66¢ $1 50d
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions BUY Guangdong Southern Tigers 81¢ $2 50d
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Islamabad United BUY Islamabad United 45¢ $1 50d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Punjab Kings 57¢ $1 50d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 86¢ $2 50d
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 50d
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 50d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 50d
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Apex Mission Impossible (BO3) - North American C BUY Dorado Gaming 86¢ $1 53d
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 69¢ $1 53d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Cleveland Guardians 62¢ $1 53d
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $1 53d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 54¢ $1 53d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 80¢ $2 53d
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 53d
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 53d
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 53d
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.20 · official $4.20 (match) · 190 history records