Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x622e…5ce2 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
other 30% $0
sports 17% +$22
politics 14% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 -15.8% -23.8% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 8 +6.2% -3.9% 50% 12% +1.6%
all 31 +1.5% -8.1% 32% 3% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -5.9%
10% -16.9% 3% -14.9%
15% -25.0% 3% -23.1%
20% -32.3% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×7.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.62 per $1 lost it wins $8.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage252d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $15 +$23 +148%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $7 $0 -4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $7 $0 +2%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in Septe Oct 24 $7 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $42 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $12 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $31 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $24 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $24 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $38 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 88¢ $43 11d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 77¢ $38 76d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $7 88d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 208d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 208d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 90¢ $4 209d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $11 209d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.68 · official $46.48 · 128 history records