Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6235…e56a crypto 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,097 (-29%) realized −$2,126 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate34%96W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day188.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$69
14 days−$481
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$350
other 4% −$17
sports 3% −$21
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.8% -34.7% 42% 21% -24.7%
≤30d 283 -5.9% -14.8% 34% 18% -14.9%
≤90d 283 -5.9% -14.8% 34% 18% -14.9%
all 283 -5.9% -14.8% 34% 18% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 18% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 14% -23.0%
15% -30.4% 10% -30.5%
20% -37.2% 7% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$2,126
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses96 / 187
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)283 / 287
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day188.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $78 $105 +$27 (+35%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 30¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $68 +$6 +9%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $34 −$29 -86%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$7 -61%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$10 -71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2m
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $79 19m
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 20m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 20m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $34 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $53 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $53 3h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 5h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $48 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.74 · official $106.74 (match) · 3500 history records