Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6235…7a5e other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$12
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 2 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 2 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -13.6%
all 2 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -13.6%
10% -22.2% 0% -21.9%
15% -29.7% 0% -29.4%
20% -36.6% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$6 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $127 −$11 -9%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $150 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $116 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $127 7h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $131 42h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 42h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $138 42h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $80 2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $13 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $22 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $69 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $22 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.14 · official $5.66 (match) · 25 history records