Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6236…6881 other 975 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,293 (-34%) realized −$5,101 · open −$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate48%258W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day102.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$5,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$311
sports 22% −$1,042
politics 12% +$101
world 11% −$130
weather 7% +$80
tech 6% +$22
finance 3% +$15
crypto 2% −$155
culture 0% +$34
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 18% -14.8%
≤30d 535 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 21% -19.7%
≤90d 535 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 21% -19.7%
all 535 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 21% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 21% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 16% -27.3%
15% -33.2% 12% -34.4%
20% -39.8% 10% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$5,154
Realized−$5,101
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses258 / 277
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions428
Markets (closed)535 / 975
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day102.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 428 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 62¢ $55 $64 +$9 (+16%)
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $46 $52 +$7 (+14%)
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 80¢ 81¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027? No 38¢ 76¢ $15 $31 +$15 (+99%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Yes 51¢ 73¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 54¢ 70¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+31%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-12%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 42¢ 65¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+57%)
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026? No 15¢ 65¢ $6 $26 +$20 (+321%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B? Yes 46¢ 65¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+40%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 8¢ 63¢ $3 $25 +$22 (+740%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 65¢ 100¢ $15 $24 +$8 (+54%)
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 55¢ 56¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 61¢ 68¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 46¢ 55¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+17%)
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? No 74¢ 51¢ $30 $20 −$9 (-31%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $6 $20 +$14 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+149%)
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? Down 63¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+58%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? No 63¢ 99¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+58%)
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? No 58¢ 99¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 73¢ 99¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Down 33¢ 98¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+201%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Down 53¢ 97¢ $11 $19 +$9 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 17 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Tuyo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 17 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$4 +32%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +2%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -12%
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Jun 17 $13 +$4 +30%
Will Iran be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wor Jun 17 $14 +$2 +17%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 17 $13 +$4 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +29%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $14 +$5 +36%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -11%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $19 −$2 -9%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $205 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3m
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? SELL No 15¢ $3 5m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 55¢ $0 27m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 29m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 55¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 31m
Will Emiliano Martinez join Bayern Munich? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $2 44m
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 26¢ $3 48m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $15 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 37¢ $7 1h
Will Yan Diomande join Paris Saint-Germain? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $6 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 40¢ $8 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 18¢ $4 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 82¢ $16 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,153.63 · official $5,543.16 · 3500 history records