Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6238…05f7 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$356 (-26%) realized −$379 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -32.9% -39.3% 29% 29% -40.0%
≤30d 17 -32.9% -39.3% 29% 29% -40.0%
≤90d 17 -32.9% -39.3% 29% 29% -40.0%
all 17 -32.9% -39.3% 29% 29% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.3% 29% -40.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.1% 29% -45.7%
15% -50.4% 29% -51.0%
20% -55.3% 29% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$57 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$379
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 0¢ 52¢ $0 $23 +$23 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $154 −$152 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $209 −$40 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $109 −$102 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$98 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $168 +$119 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$19 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $62 −$40 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $58 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$49 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $77 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $79 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $105 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.76 · official $21.89 (match) · 83 history records