Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6238…6533 crypto 639 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$998 (-1%) realized −$998 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%623W / 39L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,398
7 days−$1,394
14 days−$1,394
30 days−$1,394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -29.2% -36.0% 70% 0% -33.7%
≤30d 76 -29.2% -36.0% 70% 0% -33.7%
≤90d 76 -29.2% -36.0% 70% 0% -33.7%
all 662 -3.8% -13.0% 94% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$82 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$998
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses623 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)662 / 639
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$234
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 662 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$22 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $407 −$407 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $93 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $54 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $91 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $89 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $87 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $86 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $85 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $84 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $83 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $83 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $56 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $79 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $78 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $72 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records