Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x623a…4473
world · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage522d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$8
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 +$3 +7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $89 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $126 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $76 +$4 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $112 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $117 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $45 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 +$6 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $38 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $41 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$6
other 23% +$5
politics 16% $0
sports 12% −$11
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $46 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $2 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $45 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 41h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $50 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $50 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $50 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $47 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 29 +0.7% -8.8% 38% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 72 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 3% -9.2%
all 74 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.92 · official $52.29 (match) · 278 history records