Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x623b…2c13 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$3
other 33% +$12
politics 18% −$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 0% -9.1%
all 36 +1.3% -8.3% 28% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -8.0%
10% -17.1% 3% -16.8%
15% -25.1% 3% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×8.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.86 per $1 lost it wins $4.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage248d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $11 −$1 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $105 +$4 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $65 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 12 $16 $0 -3%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $18 +$12 +64%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 20 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $9 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $10 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $11 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 25h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $40 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $21 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $15 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $4 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $27 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $35 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records