Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x623f…bcf3 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-24%) realized −$7 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$4
other 18% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.9% -44.7% 50% 17% -51.9%
≤30d 6 -38.9% -44.7% 50% 17% -51.9%
≤90d 6 -38.9% -44.7% 50% 17% -51.9%
all 6 -38.9% -44.7% 50% 17% -51.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 17% -51.9%
10% -50.0% 17% -56.5%
15% -54.8% 17% -60.7%
20% -59.2% 17% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+222%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 62¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 7h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 96¢ $2 7h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 0¢ $2 8h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 0¢ $2 8h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 1¢ $2 8h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 1¢ $2 8h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 1¢ $2 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 38¢ $1 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 62¢ $1 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $1 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 15¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.40 · official $14.40 (match) · 17 history records